Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a capability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from US leadership follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
