A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. They authors two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
